Afghanistan: What happens next may surprise you

 The Chinese embassy in Kabul signalled on Sunday that it had been contact with the Taliban and would be staying put. Russia said it saw no need to evacuate its embassy for the time being. Turkey said its embassy would continue operations.
-South China Morning Post, 16 / 8 / 2021:
Afghanistan: US lowers flag at Kabul embassy as Taliban seize power

"You can't buy an Arab, but you can rent one."
-Israeli proverb.

I think the Taliban are going to sell out.

The entire country of Afghanistan is one massive Lithium mine. Lithium is the wonder metal in Lithium batteries - Lithium is the reason electric cars do 200 miles rather than 50 (if that), and the reason phones are slim, lightweight devices rather than the "bricks" people of a certain age remember having in the late 90s. They're also the reason laptop computers are portable rather than transportable, and the reason the kids all have little speakers that fit in a coat pocket  instead of massive ghetto blasters you carry on your shoulder.

Enough Gen-Xing now. Lithium is a vital part of the modern world, and the growth in demand for electric vehicles means that lithium will likely be the new oil... and Afghanistan is its' Saudi Arabia. The people that run Saudi Arabia hate everyone as well, they are also primitivist fascists, but while they might hate us, they just love our money......

So it is with Afghanistan. The Turks, Chinese and Russians are forming a loose alliance, a counterpoint to NATO which defends *their* "way of life". They need Afghanistan for the same reason we've needed Saudi Arabia - and I don't think they'll take kindly to dope pushers and terrorists setting up shop there. But they know how much the Taliban shit up the West, and having a well-muzzled attack dog on hand does tend to make negotiating with hostile others a lot less... difficult.

But anyway - that war is over, America lost already - the Taliban have no need to fight it all over again and risk everything they've gained.

Besides, the '80s-era Mujihadeen must be getting on in years now. Bin Laden was in his 20s when he went to Afghanistan, and would be in his sixties now. So are his confederates. When you're young, you're radical, you want to defeat superpowers, topple skyscrapers and defy the West from your mountain lair - but when you reach a certain age, you want to chill out, relax, have a bit of fun, repress your own people for a change! And a Lithium deal would allow them to do that. China and Russia don't need to guarantee security, but I know for a fact the Turks could sell them some lovely drones that would make short work of any interlopers - and the Chinese electronics industry will pay handsomely for all that lovely lith under their feet.

They'll do business, and before you know it, the country will be turned into a billion phones for Chinese teenage girls to watch their favourite K-Pop bands on, and a billion cars for their Dads to drive to work in. 

 I hope so anyway, because the alternative is too horrible to even contemplate.

Further reading:

https://nypost.com/2021/07/05/china-ramping-up-afghanistan-involvement-amid-us-withdrawal/

https://thediplomat.com/2021/08/china-in-afghanistan-trade-and-terrorism/

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/beware-taliban-promises-afghanistan-envoy-china-warns-2021-08-06/

https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/China-moves-swiftly-to-exploit-the-void-in-Afghanistan

Predictions for the Post Pandemic Future

OK. Let's get the clichés out of the way. It's A Tumultuous TimeⓇ, and Nothing Will Ever Be The Same Again™.

Now, you wanna know how Right-wing governments are going to not only get away with this, but also gain from it?

Here's how:

They're gonna blame China, and bring back all the jobs we sent overseas back in the Eighties and Nineties.

The Right have already got a grass roots / astroturf campaign going to blame China for the 'Rona. So it's China's fault that the Prime Minister went around a coronavirus ward shaking hands with everyone and babbling about herd immunity, it's China's fault that El Trumpo spent precious weeks bibbling on about how it was all a conspiracy and even more precious time keeping medical equipment from those who needed it instead of doing anything constructive, it's China's fault that the rich and the bankers got bailed out first and everyone else had to eat shit... all the blame for that - deflected at China.

So that's the electorate half way to happy. The only problem - the post-plague recession. Cos the economy's collapsed and every fucker has lost their job.

Plenty of jobs in China. Fortunate indeed that the country we're choosing to scapegoat for everything (and they are indeed far from blameless) also just happens to be the richest country in the world. And why are they rich? To quote South Park: They took our jobs!

Well, our fearless leaders gave them our jobs, actually. And now, this is the perfect opportunity to bring them home.

If I'm correct, the post-Pandemic years will see a dramatic industrial renaissance in the CANUSUK countries. All the factories that were shuttered back in the day will suddenly find that they're economical again, and the jobs sent overseas during the neoliberal globalisation years will come back.

After all, we've got our working classes "disciplined" and willing to work for peanuts, and there's the added advantage that we don't have to shift goods halfway across the world or worry about a sinister Communist government stealing our greatest technological secrets, like how to make a shitty fucking iPhone knockoff. In the future, the shitty iPhone knockoffs will be built right here in the West! Woohoo! Go us!

Oh, joy.

That's if they don't manage to fuck it up. I mean, Trump could definitely screw up even a scam that simple- mainly because it's not even that much of a scam, and people like him are so used to dishonesty that simple geopolitics tend to break them. But Britain will likely be fine, while the US's loss and long-term decline is Canada and Mexico's gain.

Brexit will... go away, as nobody is going to give a flying fuck about how many migrant workers we have in the country, in fact we'll pay to bring them back now the fruit are rotting in the fields, and this virus is a great face saving opportunity for the extreme nationalists who pushed that particular dumb and evil policy - cos they can always go: "Look - CHINA!" and then run away while we're all looking around for the Red Menace.

So yeah, the good news is, the economy is saved, and it might even reduce greenhouse gas emissions from shipping - the bad news is that it means Johnson has a clear path to saving his skin.

Labour have gone back to the Centrist brand just when the Left were starting to get over the worst of it, and nobody's going to choose some has-been lawyer they've never heard of, with a face like a spanked arse, when they could be choosing The Man Who Saved Us From The Virus (and got us all jobs while he was at it)! come 2024... though there is plenty Johnson could fuck up, that is my projection for the next election.

Just call me Cassandra!

And as for the Left? Traditionally a day late and a dollar short, I think that after Starmer completely fails to get anywhere in 2024, we'll see the return of Rebecca Long-Bailey, revamped and reprogrammed to kick arse and take names. With the return of industrial jobs, we'll see a return to trade unionism, it's just a part of the scene - and the Left will get back a considerable amount of its former mojo with it.

So, to recap: After The Pandemic ends, I predict we'll see rapid re-industrialization followed by, sadly, yet another fucking Tory government in 2024, followed by Labour finally getting its' shit together and actually getting elected in 2029. I've long been predicting that Labour wouldn't get in until around about 2030, and now I'm one step closer to finding out how.