The Chinese embassy in Kabul signalled on Sunday that it had been contact with the Taliban and would be staying put. Russia said it saw no need to evacuate its embassy for the time being. Turkey said its embassy would continue operations.
-South China Morning Post, 16 / 8 / 2021:
Afghanistan: US lowers flag at Kabul embassy as Taliban seize power
"You can't buy an Arab, but you can rent one."
-Israeli proverb.
I think the Taliban are going to sell out.
The entire country of Afghanistan is one massive Lithium mine. Lithium is the wonder metal in Lithium batteries - Lithium is the reason electric cars do 200 miles rather than 50 (if that), and the reason phones are slim, lightweight devices rather than the "bricks" people of a certain age remember having in the late 90s. They're also the reason laptop computers are portable rather than transportable, and the reason the kids all have little speakers that fit in a coat pocket instead of massive ghetto blasters you carry on your shoulder.
Enough Gen-Xing now. Lithium is a vital part of the modern world, and the growth in demand for electric vehicles means that lithium will likely be the new oil... and Afghanistan is its' Saudi Arabia. The people that run Saudi Arabia hate everyone as well, they are also primitivist fascists, but while they might hate us, they just love our money......
So it is with Afghanistan. The Turks, Chinese and Russians are forming a loose alliance, a counterpoint to NATO which defends *their* "way of life". They need Afghanistan for the same reason we've needed Saudi Arabia - and I don't think they'll take kindly to dope pushers and terrorists setting up shop there. But they know how much the Taliban shit up the West, and having a well-muzzled attack dog on hand does tend to make negotiating with hostile others a lot less... difficult.
But anyway - that war is over, America lost already - the Taliban have no need to fight it all over again and risk everything they've gained.
Besides, the '80s-era Mujihadeen must be getting on in years now. Bin Laden was in his 20s when he went to Afghanistan, and would be in his sixties now. So are his confederates. When you're young, you're radical, you want to defeat superpowers, topple skyscrapers and defy the West from your mountain lair - but when you reach a certain age, you want to chill out, relax, have a bit of fun, repress your own people for a change! And a Lithium deal would allow them to do that. China and Russia don't need to guarantee security, but I know for a fact the Turks could sell them some lovely drones that would make short work of any interlopers - and the Chinese electronics industry will pay handsomely for all that lovely lith under their feet.
They'll do business, and before you know it, the country will be turned into a billion phones for Chinese teenage girls to watch their favourite K-Pop bands on, and a billion cars for their Dads to drive to work in.
I hope so anyway, because the alternative is too horrible to even contemplate.
Further reading:
https://nypost.com/2021/07/05/china-ramping-up-afghanistan-involvement-amid-us-withdrawal/
https://thediplomat.com/2021/08/china-in-afghanistan-trade-and-terrorism/
https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/China-moves-swiftly-to-exploit-the-void-in-Afghanistan
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