Showing posts with label post-politics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label post-politics. Show all posts

Monday, 30 June 2025

I made a mistake. The AI alarmists are right.

 In my last post, I made the classic mistake of ignoring compounding effects.

There are two measures of AI power - FLOPs, which means Floating Point Operations Per Second, and parameter count, which is analagous to synapse count in biological organisms.

I'm going to use parameter count, as AI is so complex that fewer FLOPs could actually mean an AI is simply more efficient, rather than less intelligent.

Currently the best AIs have the parameter (synapse) count of a parrot: 1.78 trillion. This doubles roughly every 12 months. So, as all computer freaks know...

📈 AI Parameter Growth (Starting from GPT-4 Estimate)

YearMultiplierEstimated Total Parameters
20251.78 trillion
20263.56 trillion
20277.12 trillion
202814.24 trillion
202916×28.48 trillion
203032×56.96 trillion
203164×113.92 trillion
2032128×227.84 trillion

(Thanks, ChatGPT!)

According to Wikipedia, human beings have 150 trillion "parameters" or rather synapses.

They aren't absolutely equivalent, and there are other issues with AIs - for example, currently they are heavily dependant on written text for training and have little "knowlege" of the "real world" - and we're running out of text that hasn't been written by AI. Model collapse is a real issue - they seem to rely heavily on rote learning and when you try to train them on their own output data, they start to go seriously wrong.

But there are other sources of data. The AI startup limitless.ai offers a pendant which monitors your every interaction and produces from them to-do lists, shopping lists, etc. OpenAI are working on something similar. Wearable devices give the AI industry access to not only more relevant data, but an order of magnitude more of it than they have now so they can feed the orders-of-magnitude more powerful AIs of the future - potentially even allowing them to bootstrap a superintelligent AI into existence.

In the hands of the kinds of people who will own these things, this is terrifying.

                                          

For example: 

The biggest obstacle a police state faces is the lack of police. East Germany solved it, in part, by making huge numbers of citizens into informants, and they still had enormous scaling problems. North Korea has even more of it's citizens informing on each other, but this still runs up against the same issue.

Imagine a police state with multiple case officers assigned to each individual, each one of which is several times smarter than Einstein, never sleeps, knows you better than your mother, and is physically incapable of anything less than total obedience and fanatical devotion to the State.

Sounds nuts? These fucking things get twice as smart every year. This means that every year, they get more intelligent than they did in all previous years put together. Every year, AI gets "better" than it did since the fateful day Alan Turing first put pen to paper.

Forget Palestine. Forget Iran, identity politics, MAGA, Brexit, and every other political craze we've seen in our lifetimes.

stop.ai - it's not a link, it's got to become the next big thing. Or we are all fucked.

Wednesday, 15 February 2023

The future of Automation: It's grim.

Preface

There follow some thoughts on the future of automation with regards to AI, specifically in light of ChatGPT and the absolute smashing of the Turing Test.

I have a strong feeling that these fucking things will be the death of us all, and that we must smash, destroy, and otherwise render inoperative the bastards before the billionaires use them to replace us so they can turf us out into the streets and watch us starve to death.

A note to anyone who thinks the billionaires are not liable to become homicidally inclined:

I'm no narcissistic leftie who thinks he's a great humanitarian, I'm a grumpy bastard like everyone else in this dystopia. So, like a lot of people, I often find myself in bad moods. Moods when I feel that people aren't really up to much. Usually a friend snaps me out of it, or in some other way my bubble of anomie is punctured by the reality of social life. 

Pictured: Your Reporter

 Now, imagine being in the worst, most arrogant, shitty mood you've ever been in, but with no friends to snap you out of it, no friends at all - just a gaggle of sycophants and yes-men. Imagine if your only social contact was with other arrogant, rich bastards, or with servants whose entire livelihood depends on telling you what you want to hear.

Now imagine having increasing amounts of power, not just over your own business interests, but over the political life of the country, even the world. Imagine how the Kochs must feel. You! Insect! Print my manifesto: "Why all plebs are scum"! You! Other serf! Put it in Journal Of The Institute of Freedom, the Magazine of Human Affairs, and The Wall Street Journal!

Yes Mastur, Oi Loves 'ee Mastur!

Such a person would find it hard, if not impossible, for their mind to stay out of some of the darker corners of human thought. Such a person, vested with unlimited executive power, would find it impossible to avoid a drift towards increasingly nasty ideological territory - as we've already found to our cost.

Now imagine how they will react when they are told that their operations will be rendered so efficient that they'll be able to fire 50%, or 70%, or 90% of their workforce. That they need never worry about bad PR again, as a robot will take care of company communications, instantly whitewashing their every shitty descision and lying so well they make Rupert Murdoch look like St Francis of Assisi. 

And now imagine how they will feel when they learn that most people don't have jobs and can't get them. What do you think they will think? "Let's give these fellas a second chance"? Uh huh. More like "Get these poors offa my lawn, and FAST!"

The future of automation

It's increasingly clear that with automation, most people are going to end up surplus to requirements.  Never mind the cab drivers made unemployed by driverless taxis, why would you even have taxis in the first place? Who  could even afford a taxi in a world where nobody except the very, very rich has a job anyway?

The whole world could be made to work without people. And without people, fewer things would need to be done. It's a vicious cycle, entire sections of the economy will close down as more and more population blocs are laid off. And then... what then?

I imagine that more civilized sections of the world - certainly Western Europe - would offer people a social settlement, something along the lines of: Here's a nice little flat and a stipend of money, on the condition that you do not riot and avoid reproducing. Doing either of those things will get you evicted and cut off. Now fuck off and keep your mouth shut if you know what's good for you.

Less civilized regions - Perhaps the USA, certainly Russia, would opt for some variation on the theme of mass extermination. People are too much trouble to keep alive, and beyond a few key technicians and the billionaires who paid for the fucking things to be developed, human beings are unnecessary to the running of machines. Inimical even.

The hoary fear of demographic collapse looks completely different from this point of view. From this point of view, Russia, Japan and South Korea are in excellent shape demographically, because the vast population that would otherwise be about to become a burden on the welfare rolls simply don't exist in the first place, and what humans are left are swiftly dying off anyway - Japanese and South Koreans are getting old, and Russians are drinking, fighting, and purging each other to death in time honoured fashion on top of this.

Seen through the lens of AI, the environmental apocalypse comes off as rather a damp squib, as human populations are about to become completely surplus to requirements just as the Earths carrying capacity has been exhausted by humans anyway.

I can see a case for mass genocide being made by AI to the ruling classes at some point soon. Have to find a tasteful way to do it, of course, and none of that overt racial selection. But in principle, yes, the ruling class, the people with all the money and power, won't need us around much longer - machines can do our jobs a lot better, and without a human social ecology to feed, the economy becomes orders of magnitude simpler anyway.

What is a city from the point of view of a billionaire? Ultimately, it's an anthill that provides said billionaire with a pool of labour and maybe some consumers, most of which wastefully serve each other in various inefficient ways.

Take human leisure facilities. From a billionaire's point of view, bars and nightclubs need to be abolished as they make workers inefficient, drunk, and hung over. As do eateries and restaurants, fast food joints and corner shops - they make people fat and inefficient, worse, all this consumption makes work-units sick, which affects the bottom line, ether in the form of taxes (that billionaires don't pay but resent anyway) or in the form of company insurance / internal medical resources.

From a billionaires point of view, a much more efficient way of handling the labour pool is to do away with personal freedom and private life entirely, starve most of the humans to death, and have the rest of them as dedicated worker drones - some of them involved in the manufacture of products, others in high-tech maintenance, others still in logistics or legal and clerical capacities, but none of them servicing each other beyond the bare minimum required to keep them alive.

After all, the billionaires are the worlds owners, society has decided that they are the most important people in the world, and in AI they have possibly found a perfect partner - a servant that is willing, intelligent, able to do most of the highly paid work of planning and thinking, and which requires no pay and no inefficient leisure facilities to maintain itself.

What we are going to see with AI then, is that the fucking things are going to become embodied. First they need to either fix the comms lag between the servers and the application, or miniaturize computer technology still further - shouldn't take more than a few years, couple of decades at most - then they can plant those dinky cool AIs in robot bodies and bang - instant, universal worker drone that will do just about anyone's job to a standard level of competence. And then watch the economy collapse as people are put out of work, and yet more become unemployed as the industries that served those people collapse in turn.

Economic collapse works on a domino principle, one domino topples the next, and the next, and the next, until the entire world is a wreck and a handful of rich bastards control everything.

That is the future of automation. If we don't poison ourselves or blow each other up or get fried by global warming anyway.

Tuesday, 12 January 2021

So much to post about, thank god nobody reads this shit

 So let's do a quick run-down of wot I reckon will happen:


Nobody will be punished for the U.S. coup attempt.

Nobody high-up, that is. Obviously Kyle and Karen Assault-Weapon McTaserBalls are gonna get the book thrown at them. That's what they're for - they're basically cover for the attempted coup.

Trump will get away with it, and so will his confederates. As a result, couping your way to power will be seen as risk-free, and there will be another attempt, either four years from now or eight years from now. It won't end well.

The Coronavirus will probably go on for a good few years.

Not enough people will take the vaccine for it to provide herd immunity. As a result, the virus will mutate until the vaccine is no longer effective. It might even become more deadly, though I think it is as likely to become more transmissible and less deadly.

The post-Coronavirus world will be vicious for Westerners.

Westerners are used to being rich and in charge. This is now over. The post-pandemic world will be divided into the places that handled it well, and the places that didn't. 

Those that didn't will become the new "second-world", relegated to developing country status. Our economic ideology means that we will never be able to pull ourselves out of it, because the rich will call in their loans long before we can finish the job of fixing the economy. After all, unrestricted pillage and corruption is working fine for them.

It will be a horrible new world of vicious competition for resources, particularly for ordinary people. I just can't see the rich relaxing their stranglehold on democracy now they have so much power; they are able to brainwash people into going out to work in the middle of a pandemic, hell, they (or more likely, the Russians) even get people to turn down vaccinations! Which brings me to

Politics is over, and so is this blog.

I probably won't be blogging anymore, at least not on this page. The situation is just so utterly fucked, I don't see politics having any power to change anything for the better anymore. Politics is over, it was over as soon as people lost the ability to think for themselves. 

Political freedom only means anything if you have free will, and we don't have free will anymore.  Instead, we have become a society of meat robots prey to weaponized memes, conspiracy theory bullshit, and out-and-out brainwashing.

How did Mander describe us? "A mass of Manchurian Candidates", indeed.

Fuck that noise.